Community health worker waits for
rapid diagnostic test results on baby
in Ghanian village of Takorasi.
Copyright, LSHTM.

One of the Group’s objectives is to develop novel study designs and statistical and epidemiological methods, to facilitate interventions against within out priority diseases. Our ideas are motivated by problems we have found on the ground, and facilitated by the many and varied datasets we have helped generate. The major activity is mathematical modelling of HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB and pneumococcal pneumonia. These studies are designed to supplement the empirical data and increase our understanding of the determinants of disease, explore the effects of alternative interventions in different population settings and raise future research hypotheses.



We publish methodological papers in three main areas:

1. Randomised trial and other study designs, including endpoint selection, with emphasis on parasitological and entomological outcomes.

2. Causal inference, which seeks to estimate the strengths of relationships based on models of dependence.

3. Survey design and behavioural measurement, motivated by studies of HIV and other STIs.

Key Publications

Wolbers M, Kleinschmidt I, Simmons CP, Donnelly CA (2012) Considerations in the design of clinical trials to test novel entomological approaches to dengue control. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6(11):e1937. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001937.

Alexander N (2012) Analysis of parasite and other skewed counts. Trop Med Int Health 17:684-693. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2012.02987

Daniel RM, Kenward MG, Cousens SN, De Stavola BL (2012) Using causal diagrams to guide analysis in missing data problems. Stat Meth Med Res 21(3):243-56. doi: 10.1177/0962280210394469.

McCreesh N, Frost SD, Seeley J, Katongole J, Tarsh MN, Ndunguse R, Jichi F, Lunel NL,  Maher D, Johnston LG, Sonnenberg P, Copas AJ, Hayes RJ, White RG (2012) Evaluation of respondent-driven sampling. Epidemiology 23(1):138-47. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31823ac17c

 Staff working on methodology:


Theme Leader
Dr Neal Alexander

Christian Bottomley

Richard Hayes

Peter Smith

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